Market Commentary Q3 2025: Gold, AI Stocks, Rate Cuts
North American economies are beginning to lag, inflation has re-entered the conversation, and geopolitical flare-ups remain. Despite the headlines, global stock markets delivered another exceptional quarter as technology’s boom and lower interest rates preoccupied investors. The S&P 500 in particular recorded its best third quarter since 2020, marking a sharp rebound from April’s tariff-induced sell-off.
Decoupling Duties: Tariff impacts delayed
Trade policy has become increasingly protectionist throughout 2025. Tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act need revenue offsets, preventing the wholesale removal of tariffs many initially hoped for. Figure 1 illustrates the present scope relative to historical norms. Even as we approach effective rates not seen in decades, new sector-specific import taxes are being levied against heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and furniture. This escalation contradicts decades of trade liberalization and multilateral cooperation.
Figure 1: U.S. International Trade Commission, Fitch Ratings. Asterisk indicates Fitch forecast from April 3, 2025, for the full calendar year.
The effects of tariffs have been delayed, not denied. The full effect of trade wars will be felt over the coming 6 to 12 months.
The consequences are straightforward in theory: higher input costs compress profitability, retaliatory measures put trade at risk, and in some cases, consumer boycotts of American products hinder demand. These dynamics typically lead to a measure of slower economic growth and reduced consumer spending—vulnerable industries could stumble, and some might fail altogether.
Yet the anticipated near-term damage has been modest. Core inflation has risen only moderately, employment remains relatively stable, and recession indicators haven’t reached historically concerning levels. The most likely explanation is that businesses front-loaded inventory purchases ahead of policy shocks—a temporary buffer that provided short-term insulation but isn’t likely to outlast structural cost increases.
Looking further ahead, there are a pair of issues to consider. First, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement faces renegotiation in 2026, potentially disrupting North American trade flows that have remained largely exempt from tariffs. Second, and more immediately, tensions with China are rising around rare earth export restrictions, retaliatory measures, and port access fees. If relations don’t improve, the U.S. economic outperformance that has characterized recent years may begin to erode.
Technology Timelines: Innovation in equity
As economic fundamentals soften, investors have increasingly concentrated capital in AI-related businesses. This trend explains much of the U.S. market’s top-heavy composition. Portfolios tracking the index inherit outsized exposure to a narrow set of businesses, regardless of valuation or fundamental outlook. Active management, on the other hand, mitigates these risks.
We share investors’ long-term conviction that AI finds itself in the category of electricity, automobiles, and the internet—technology with transformative potential. Each of these innovations fundamentally reshaped economic activity and social organization, but each also required decades—not quarters—to achieve mass adoption and material economic impact. The automobile was invented in 1886 yet only became commonplace after Ford’s mass production of the Model T in the early 20th century. By the 1930s, they had altered infrastructure such as roads and reshaped public life and industry to revolve around them.
Market performance orbits AI: data centers, specialized semiconductors, cloud computing capacity, and advanced storage solutions. Companies like Nvidia and TSMC have captured extraordinary value as foundational suppliers, while hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta have deployed massive capital investments to build AI capabilities. These early winners deserve recognition, but the ultimate value creation may go to businesses that successfully integrate AI into corporate workflows and consumer-facing applications—a stage we have yet to see. In the meantime, Figure 2 delineates the associated opportunities in relation to AI.
Figure 2: Bellwether Investment Management.
This adoption curve introduces opportunity and risk in equal portions. Like the Dot-Com era, there will be winners and losers as business models prove themselves in practice rather than theory. Companies that generate tangible returns on these AI investments—through cost reduction, revenue enhancement, or new product creation—will be rewarded. Those that invested heavily without demonstrating concrete benefits may have little to show for it. We expect this differentiation to unfold over the next several years as the technology matures beyond its current infrastructure-building phase.
Fiscal Forces: Bearing down on bonds
The government shutdown reflects an unsustainable fiscal trajectory, yet fixing it seems secondary. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan organization, estimates deficits total 6% of GDP. Interest obligations have reached 13% of government spending, overtaking defense, and our gross national debt has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, per the U.S. Treasury.
In response, investors are demanding higher term premiums for long-duration Treasuries, pushing 10- and 30-year yields higher even as the Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates. This divergence signals growing concern about fiscal sustainability. Equity markets have yet to fully acknowledge these risks. The political reality offers limited relief: entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare constitute two-thirds of federal spending, leaving minimal room for cuts, while tax increases face resistance.
Global Equities
Despite current valuations in highly concentrated markets, equities continue to climb higher on the back of positive sentiment. Anticipated interest rate cuts and AI-driven growth have been the major through lines of 2025—second-quarter earnings of 10% average annual growth have only reinforced optimism.
The greenback’s year-to-date decline makes a compelling case for U.S. investors to consider broadening their investment horizons by diversifying globally. International indices have outperformed domestic markets through the first three quarters of 2025, partially due to currency tailwinds.
Gold has emerged as 2025’s standout performer by climbing nearly 50% on the year. Historically difficult to predict, the precious metal’s price action is often tied to hedging efforts. Concerns regarding the U.S. dollar’s position as the world reserve currency are a likely culprit this time around, as many countries have begun diversifying away from the USD and adding to their bullion reserves. Inflation, growing debt burdens, and ongoing geopolitical conflict come to mind as well.
Gold’s sudden shine might be a nod toward the risks tied to record levels of market concentration.
Periods of unrest have historically supported the yellow ore, and current conditions fit the mold. As a physical commodity with all-in sustaining costs around $1,400–$1,600 per ounce, the metal’s $4,000 spot price represents exceptional profitability for producers, of which many have reached new highs.
A select few stocks now hold disproportionate influence over major indices. Our equity holdings include several technology leaders, but matching the S&P 500’s performance would require allocating roughly 38% of portfolios to just 10 businesses, as seen in Figure 3.
Figure 3: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
The challenge extends globally. Asian markets, while posting strong quarterly results, faced similar circumstances—South Korean and Taiwanese indices benefited from AI semiconductor demand, while Chinese chip self-reliance initiatives steered inflows.
Geographic diversification alone offers limited protection when technology dominates leadership worldwide. Yet leadership and perspective change. Investor preferences for nations, industries, and companies shift far more quickly than the pace of innovation. According to the Callan Institute’s Periodic Table—which tracks and ranks annual returns—only one index has claimed the top performance position in consecutive years since 2005: the S&P 500 in 2023-2024.¹
This historical pattern underscores diversification’s enduring value. Diligent investors stand to gain through systematic exposure across regions and sectors, anchored by sound fundamentals—profitability, cash flow generation, and valuations—rather than sentiment alone. Investor enthusiasm may be driving performance at present, but sentiment-dependent rallies also represent vulnerability. Given elevated concentration and valuations, seeking quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, consistent cash generation, and reasonable valuations is prudent. While this discipline may lag in certain environments, it has historically delivered superior risk-adjusted returns across full market cycles.
Fixed Income
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September for the first time this year, shifting its focus toward supporting the economy as job creation figures were revised downward. Future reductions—particularly those of 50 bps or more—will depend on inflation tapering off.
The hope is that tariff-driven price increases will prove transitory. A cooling labor market should prompt companies to compete harder for consumer dollars, which typically pressures prices lower. But this cycle is anything but typical. New tariffs—or delayed price pass-throughs into 2026—could complicate the path back to 2% inflation.
Investors anticipated weaker economic data would trigger a response from policymakers. Bond yields reacted accordingly, leading to gains in fixed income markets. Longer-term rates—over which central banks have far less influence—have been more difficult to contain. The 30-year Treasury yield stands roughly where it began the year.
This distinction is important for mortgages. The U.S. housing market is likely to remain in limbo thanks to ultra-low-rate, pandemic-era mortgages that serve as a pair of golden handcuffs, disincentivizing owners to sell, while high prices keep buyers on the sidelines.
The mechanics of long-term rates are complex, but there are reasons to consider why they remain elevated:
The further inflation drifts from the Fed’s 2% target, the harder it becomes to justify significant cuts.
Investors are concerned over the Fed’s independence, as its integrity is a central pillar of price stability and employment.
Sustained fiscal deficits have elevated the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio relative to developed market peers.
With mounting deficits and maturing debt, a surge in new issuance is adding supply just as demand begins to falter.
The outlook for inflation and growth remains stubbornly obscured. With official labor data temporarily offline and CPI trending volatile, policymakers face contrasting forces and partial blind spots moving forward—an environment where diversification becomes essential rather than optional.In our view, the current backdrop favors portfolios positioned for multiple scenarios rather than single-point forecasts.
In this context, strategic selection across duration, quality, and category may enhance resilience. Inflation-linked bonds provide near-term protection while tariff impacts crystallize. Municipal bonds offer attractive after-tax positioning for medium-term allocations. Agency mortgage-backed securities present an asymmetric opportunity: if Treasury yields decline meaningfully, prepayment risk would emerge in an environment where falling rates signal improving conditions and broader reinvestment opportunities. If housing market paralysis persists, investors continue capturing current spreads.
The Path Forward in Financial Markets
Resilience and volatility have defined 2025, but performance rests on an unusually narrow base. The data reveals a K-shaped economy, which is known for divergences—certain segments, groups, sectors, or industries react differently to unique pressures.
Nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s weight can be attributed to 10 companies, but concentration makes its own company. According to Harvard economists, AI-related capital expenditures accounted for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025.² At the household level, the top 10% account for nearly half of all consumer spending.³
The resilience scenario would continue what’s already been observed this year. Asset values hold steady, maintaining confidence among wealthy households to support continued spending. Hyperscalers demonstrate tangible returns on AI, encouraging further investment. Corporate earnings meet elevated expectations despite the pressures at hand. The Federal Reserve achieves a soft landing, and trade tensions stabilize rather than escalate. In this environment, market leadership gradually broadens as rate cuts benefit a wider range of sectors, and economic growth continues at a moderate pace.
The alternative path centers on erosion of the narrow base currently supporting both markets and growth. A meaningful asset market correction would reduce paper wealth among the top tier of spenders, who have limited incentive to increase consumption further, while the bottom 90% have constrained capacity to compensate. If AI fails to generate near-term returns, further investment may moderate, removing a key pillar of GDP growth. Earnings disappointments could pressure valuations currently discounting double-digit growth, while concerns about fiscal sustainability could tighten credit conditions.
These outcomes are not mutually exclusive. In all likelihood, we should expect economies and markets to land somewhere along this spectrum, with elements of both resilience and constraint shaping the path forward. This exercise is more about recognizing the current bounds and how to operate within them.
The coming quarters will provide greater clarity. Corporate earnings will reveal whether margins can withstand cost pressures and whether AI investments are translating into measurable benefits. Federal Reserve decisions will depend on incoming inflation and employment data, with trade policy adding uncertainty to both. The 2026 USMCA renegotiation could either ease or intensify North American trade disruptions. US-China trade talks will have global implications. Bond markets are already signaling concern through elevated long-term yields despite policy easing; equity markets have yet to fully incorporate these signals. The concentrated nature of 2025’s growth—whether in consumer spending, market returns, or GDP drivers—creates heightened sensitivity to shifts in confidence or fundamentals.
Time will tell which asset class leads the next wave of returns. This unpredictability is precisely why all-weather strategies include exposure to many and more. In any given year, portfolios will hold securities that have performed exceptionally well alongside others still waiting to meet expectations.
This is the nature of diversification, so to speak. The alternative approach—making concentrated bets on the wrong asset class at the wrong time—can carry far greater costs.
⁴ Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at September 30, 2025. All returns shown are the total index return including income.
Fulcrum Equity Management, LLC, doing business as Fulcrum Wealth Management Management, is an investment adviser registered with the SEC. Fulcrum Wealth Management only conducts business in jurisdictions where it is properly notice filed, or is exempted from such filing requirements. Registration is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability.
Content should not be viewed as personalized investment advice. All investments and strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Index performance does not represent results obtained by Fulcrum Wealth Management and does not reflect the impact that advisory fees and other expenses will have on the returns. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or exceed any particular benchmark. Alternative investments are speculative, may be susceptible to fraud, involve a high level of risk, and may experience significant price volatility. You could lose all or a substantial part of your money, and your interest may be illiquid. They may involve complex tax structures and higher fees.
This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience. By continuing to browse on this website, you accept the use of cookies for the above purposes.
Market Commentary Q3 2025: Gold, AI Stocks, Rate Cuts
North American economies are beginning to lag, inflation has re-entered the conversation, and geopolitical flare-ups remain. Despite the headlines, global stock markets delivered another exceptional quarter as technology’s boom and lower interest rates preoccupied investors. The S&P 500 in particular recorded its best third quarter since 2020, marking a sharp rebound from April’s tariff-induced sell-off.
Decoupling Duties: Tariff impacts delayed
Trade policy has become increasingly protectionist throughout 2025. Tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act need revenue offsets, preventing the wholesale removal of tariffs many initially hoped for. Figure 1 illustrates the present scope relative to historical norms. Even as we approach effective rates not seen in decades, new sector-specific import taxes are being levied against heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and furniture. This escalation contradicts decades of trade liberalization and multilateral cooperation.
Figure 1: U.S. International Trade Commission, Fitch Ratings.
Asterisk indicates Fitch forecast from April 3, 2025, for the full calendar year.
The consequences are straightforward in theory: higher input costs compress profitability, retaliatory measures put trade at risk, and in some cases, consumer boycotts of American products hinder demand. These dynamics typically lead to a measure of slower economic growth and reduced consumer spending—vulnerable industries could stumble, and some might fail altogether.
Yet the anticipated near-term damage has been modest. Core inflation has risen only moderately, employment remains relatively stable, and recession indicators haven’t reached historically concerning levels. The most likely explanation is that businesses front-loaded inventory purchases ahead of policy shocks—a temporary buffer that provided short-term insulation but isn’t likely to outlast structural cost increases.
Looking further ahead, there are a pair of issues to consider. First, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement faces renegotiation in 2026, potentially disrupting North American trade flows that have remained largely exempt from tariffs. Second, and more immediately, tensions with China are rising around rare earth export restrictions, retaliatory measures, and port access fees. If relations don’t improve, the U.S. economic outperformance that has characterized recent years may begin to erode.
Technology Timelines: Innovation in equity
As economic fundamentals soften, investors have increasingly concentrated capital in AI-related businesses. This trend explains much of the U.S. market’s top-heavy composition. Portfolios tracking the index inherit outsized exposure to a narrow set of businesses, regardless of valuation or fundamental outlook. Active management, on the other hand, mitigates these risks.
We share investors’ long-term conviction that AI finds itself in the category of electricity, automobiles, and the internet—technology with transformative potential. Each of these innovations fundamentally reshaped economic activity and social organization, but each also required decades—not quarters—to achieve mass adoption and material economic impact. The automobile was invented in 1886 yet only became commonplace after Ford’s mass production of the Model T in the early 20th century. By the 1930s, they had altered infrastructure such as roads and reshaped public life and industry to revolve around them.
Market performance orbits AI: data centers, specialized semiconductors, cloud computing capacity, and advanced storage solutions. Companies like Nvidia and TSMC have captured extraordinary value as foundational suppliers, while hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta have deployed massive capital investments to build AI capabilities. These early winners deserve recognition, but the ultimate value creation may go to businesses that successfully integrate AI into corporate workflows and consumer-facing applications—a stage we have yet to see. In the meantime, Figure 2 delineates the associated opportunities in relation to AI.
Figure 2: Bellwether Investment Management.
This adoption curve introduces opportunity and risk in equal portions. Like the Dot-Com era, there will be winners and losers as business models prove themselves in practice rather than theory. Companies that generate tangible returns on these AI investments—through cost reduction, revenue enhancement, or new product creation—will be rewarded. Those that invested heavily without demonstrating concrete benefits may have little to show for it. We expect this differentiation to unfold over the next several years as the technology matures beyond its current infrastructure-building phase.
Fiscal Forces: Bearing down on bonds
The government shutdown reflects an unsustainable fiscal trajectory, yet fixing it seems secondary. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan organization, estimates deficits total 6% of GDP. Interest obligations have reached 13% of government spending, overtaking defense, and our gross national debt has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, per the U.S. Treasury.
In response, investors are demanding higher term premiums for long-duration Treasuries, pushing 10- and 30-year yields higher even as the Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates. This divergence signals growing concern about fiscal sustainability. Equity markets have yet to fully acknowledge these risks. The political reality offers limited relief: entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare constitute two-thirds of federal spending, leaving minimal room for cuts, while tax increases face resistance.
Global Equities
Despite current valuations in highly concentrated markets, equities continue to climb higher on the back of positive sentiment. Anticipated interest rate cuts and AI-driven growth have been the major through lines of 2025—second-quarter earnings of 10% average annual growth have only reinforced optimism.
The greenback’s year-to-date decline makes a compelling case for U.S. investors to consider broadening their investment horizons by diversifying globally. International indices have outperformed domestic markets through the first three quarters of 2025, partially due to currency tailwinds.
Gold has emerged as 2025’s standout performer by climbing nearly 50% on the year. Historically difficult to predict, the precious metal’s price action is often tied to hedging efforts. Concerns regarding the U.S. dollar’s position as the world reserve currency are a likely culprit this time around, as many countries have begun diversifying away from the USD and adding to their bullion reserves. Inflation, growing debt burdens, and ongoing geopolitical conflict come to mind as well.
Gold’s sudden shine might be a nod toward the risks tied to record levels of market concentration.
Periods of unrest have historically supported the yellow ore, and current conditions fit the mold. As a physical commodity with all-in sustaining costs around $1,400–$1,600 per ounce, the metal’s $4,000 spot price represents exceptional profitability for producers, of which many have reached new highs.
A select few stocks now hold disproportionate influence over major indices. Our equity holdings include several technology leaders, but matching the S&P 500’s performance would require allocating roughly 38% of portfolios to just 10 businesses, as seen in Figure 3.
Figure 3: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
The challenge extends globally. Asian markets, while posting strong quarterly results, faced similar circumstances—South Korean and Taiwanese indices benefited from AI semiconductor demand, while Chinese chip self-reliance initiatives steered inflows.
Geographic diversification alone offers limited protection when technology dominates leadership worldwide. Yet leadership and perspective change. Investor preferences for nations, industries, and companies shift far more quickly than the pace of innovation. According to the Callan Institute’s Periodic Table—which tracks and ranks annual returns—only one index has claimed the top performance position in consecutive years since 2005: the S&P 500 in 2023-2024.¹
This historical pattern underscores diversification’s enduring value. Diligent investors stand to gain through systematic exposure across regions and sectors, anchored by sound fundamentals—profitability, cash flow generation, and valuations—rather than sentiment alone. Investor enthusiasm may be driving performance at present, but sentiment-dependent rallies also represent vulnerability. Given elevated concentration and valuations, seeking quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, consistent cash generation, and reasonable valuations is prudent. While this discipline may lag in certain environments, it has historically delivered superior risk-adjusted returns across full market cycles.
Fixed Income
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September for the first time this year, shifting its focus toward supporting the economy as job creation figures were revised downward. Future reductions—particularly those of 50 bps or more—will depend on inflation tapering off.
The hope is that tariff-driven price increases will prove transitory. A cooling labor market should prompt companies to compete harder for consumer dollars, which typically pressures prices lower. But this cycle is anything but typical. New tariffs—or delayed price pass-throughs into 2026—could complicate the path back to 2% inflation.
Investors anticipated weaker economic data would trigger a response from policymakers. Bond yields reacted accordingly, leading to gains in fixed income markets. Longer-term rates—over which central banks have far less influence—have been more difficult to contain. The 30-year Treasury yield stands roughly where it began the year.
This distinction is important for mortgages. The U.S. housing market is likely to remain in limbo thanks to ultra-low-rate, pandemic-era mortgages that serve as a pair of golden handcuffs, disincentivizing owners to sell, while high prices keep buyers on the sidelines.
The mechanics of long-term rates are complex, but there are reasons to consider why they remain elevated:
The outlook for inflation and growth remains stubbornly obscured. With official labor data temporarily offline and CPI trending volatile, policymakers face contrasting forces and partial blind spots moving forward—an environment where diversification becomes essential rather than optional. In our view, the current backdrop favors portfolios positioned for multiple scenarios rather than single-point forecasts.
The Path Forward in Financial Markets
Resilience and volatility have defined 2025, but performance rests on an unusually narrow base. The data reveals a K-shaped economy, which is known for divergences—certain segments, groups, sectors, or industries react differently to unique pressures.
Nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s weight can be attributed to 10 companies, but concentration makes its own company. According to Harvard economists, AI-related capital expenditures accounted for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025.² At the household level, the top 10% account for nearly half of all consumer spending.³
The resilience scenario would continue what’s already been observed this year. Asset values hold steady, maintaining confidence among wealthy households to support continued spending. Hyperscalers demonstrate tangible returns on AI, encouraging further investment. Corporate earnings meet elevated expectations despite the pressures at hand. The Federal Reserve achieves a soft landing, and trade tensions stabilize rather than escalate. In this environment, market leadership gradually broadens as rate cuts benefit a wider range of sectors, and economic growth continues at a moderate pace.
The alternative path centers on erosion of the narrow base currently supporting both markets and growth. A meaningful asset market correction would reduce paper wealth among the top tier of spenders, who have limited incentive to increase consumption further, while the bottom 90% have constrained capacity to compensate. If AI fails to generate near-term returns, further investment may moderate, removing a key pillar of GDP growth. Earnings disappointments could pressure valuations currently discounting double-digit growth, while concerns about fiscal sustainability could tighten credit conditions.
These outcomes are not mutually exclusive. In all likelihood, we should expect economies and markets to land somewhere along this spectrum, with elements of both resilience and constraint shaping the path forward. This exercise is more about recognizing the current bounds and how to operate within them.
The coming quarters will provide greater clarity. Corporate earnings will reveal whether margins can withstand cost pressures and whether AI investments are translating into measurable benefits. Federal Reserve decisions will depend on incoming inflation and employment data, with trade policy adding uncertainty to both. The 2026 USMCA renegotiation could either ease or intensify North American trade disruptions. US-China trade talks will have global implications. Bond markets are already signaling concern through elevated long-term yields despite policy easing; equity markets have yet to fully incorporate these signals. The concentrated nature of 2025’s growth—whether in consumer spending, market returns, or GDP drivers—creates heightened sensitivity to shifts in confidence or fundamentals.
Time will tell which asset class leads the next wave of returns. This unpredictability is precisely why all-weather strategies include exposure to many and more. In any given year, portfolios will hold securities that have performed exceptionally well alongside others still waiting to meet expectations.
This is the nature of diversification, so to speak. The alternative approach—making concentrated bets on the wrong asset class at the wrong time—can carry far greater costs.
⁴ Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at September 30, 2025. All returns shown are the total index return including income.
Fulcrum Equity Management, LLC, doing business as Fulcrum Wealth Management Management, is an investment adviser registered with the SEC. Fulcrum Wealth Management only conducts business in jurisdictions where it is properly notice filed, or is exempted from such filing requirements. Registration is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability.
Content should not be viewed as personalized investment advice. All investments and strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Index performance does not represent results obtained by Fulcrum Wealth Management and does not reflect the impact that advisory fees and other expenses will have on the returns. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or exceed any particular benchmark. Alternative investments are speculative, may be susceptible to fraud, involve a high level of risk, and may experience significant price volatility. You could lose all or a substantial part of your money, and your interest may be illiquid. They may involve complex tax structures and higher fees.
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